DENG En-song, WEI Xue-li, ZHU Zhi-xin, CHEN Bao-cheng, HU Lei
By using the methods of field investigation, fixed-point observation, interpretation of remote sensing data, regional geological data collection and mathematical statistical analysis, the 26 glacial debris flow gullies along the Aoyitake-Bulunkou section of Karakoram Highway are selected as the study object. Nine indicators are including average slope, weathering intensity of rocks, annual hours of sunshine, average annual temperature, glacier area, distance from the fault zone, drainage area, gradient, largest height difference of drainage selected as the basic evaluation factors. Principal component analysis method is used to determine the weight of each evaluation factor and select the dominant factor, and then the gray system is used to calculate the correlation degree between each evaluation factor and the dominant factor. The calculation formula of the hazard coefficient of debris flow is proposed and a suitable hazard assessment model of debris flow is constructed. The evaluation result shows that (1) glacial debris flows along the research Highway are in moderate-high hazard levels, which are mainly distributed in the lower part of the Aoyitake-Bulunkou section; (2) there are 3 very high hazard debris flow gullies, accounting for 11.54%, 10 high hazard debris flow gullies, accounting for 38.46%, 12 medium hazard debris flow gullies, accounting for 46.15%, and 1 light hazard debris flow gully, accounting for 3.85%. The result of the study coincides with the actual situation of the glacial debris flow in 2011-2015, which shows that the evaluation model is reasonable and feasible, it can provide a scientific basis for debris flow hazard assessment and route selection along and near the Aoyitake-Bulunkou section of Karakoram Highway.